A recent report based on the predictions of futurist Lars Thomsen showcases the future of electric vehicles by identifying key market trends.
Is the development of electric vehicles dangerous? Rising electricity prices, inflation and shortages of raw materials have cast doubt on the future of electric vehicles. But if you look at the future development of the market in Europe, the US and China, electric vehicles are gaining ground all over the world.
According to SMMT data, total UK new car registrations in 2022 will be 1.61m, of which 267,203 are pure electric vehicles (BEVs), accounting for 16.6% of new car sales, and 101,414 are plug-in vehicles. hybrid. (PHEV) It accounts for 6.3% of new car sales.
As a result, pure electric vehicles have become the second most popular powertrain in the UK. There are around 660,000 electric vehicles and 445,000 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the UK today.
A Juice Technology report based on predictions by futurist Lars Thomsen confirms that the share of electric vehicles continues to increase, not only in cars, but also in public transport and heavy vehicles. A tipping point is approaching when electric buses, vans and taxis will become more cost-effective than diesel or gasoline powered vehicles. This will make the decision to use an electric car not only environmentally sound, but also economically viable.
A tipping point is approaching when electric buses, vans and taxis will become more cost-effective than diesel or gasoline powered vehicles.
However, in order to cope with the growing number of electric vehicles, and not slow down further development, the charging network needs to be significantly expanded. According to Lars Thomsen’s forecast, demand in all three areas of charging infrastructure (autobahns, destinations and homes) is growing exponentially.
Careful seat selection and choosing the right charging station for each seat is now critical. If successful, it will be possible to earn from the public charging infrastructure not through the installation itself, but through related services, such as the sale of food and drinks in the charging area.
Looking at the development of the global market, it seems that the trend of renewable energy production has never stopped and the cost of these energy sources continues to fall.
We are currently pricing in electricity markets because a single energy source (natural gas) makes electricity disproportionately more expensive (along with several other temporary factors). However, the current situation is not permanent, as it is closely related to geopolitical and financial tensions. In the medium to long term, electricity will become cheaper, more renewables will be available and the grid will become smarter.
Electricity will become cheaper, more renewable energy will be produced, and networks will become smarter
Distributed generation requires a smart grid to intelligently allocate available power. Since electric vehicles can be recharged anytime they are idle, they will play a key role in stabilizing the grid by keeping production peaks. For this, however, dynamic load management is a prerequisite for all new charging stations entering the market.
There are some notable differences between European countries regarding the state of development of charging infrastructure. In Scandinavia, the Netherlands and Germany, for example, infrastructure development is already very advanced.
The advantage of the charging infrastructure is that its creation and installation does not take much time. Roadside charging stations can be planned and built in weeks or months, while charging stations at home or at work take even less time than planning and installation.
So when we talk about “infrastructure” we don’t mean the time frame that used to take to build highways and bridges for nuclear power plants. So even countries that are lagging behind can catch up very, very quickly.
In the medium term, public charging infrastructure will be wherever it really makes sense for operators and customers. The type of charging also needs to be adapted to the location: after all, what good is an 11kW AC charger at a gas station if people just want to stop for a coffee or a bite to eat before their trip?
However, hotel or amusement park car park chargers make even more sense than ultra-fast but expensive fast DC chargers: hotel car parks, entertainment venues, tourist attractions, malls, airports and business parks. 20 AC charging stations for the price of one HPC (High Power Charger).
Electric vehicle users confirm that with average daily distances of 30-40 km (18-25 miles), there is no need to visit public charging points. All you have to do is plug your car into a charging point during the day at work and usually longer at home at night. Both use alternating current (alternating current), which is slower and thus helps extend battery life.
Electric vehicles must ultimately be seen as a whole. That’s why you need the right type of charging station in the right place. The charging stations then complement each other to form an integrated network.
What is certain, however, is that AC charging at home or at work will always be the cheaper option for users as more and more variable charging rates are offered until 2025, reducing grid-supported charging. the amount of renewable energy available on the grid, the time of day or night and the load on the grid, charging at that time automatically reduces costs.
There are technical, economic and environmental reasons for this, and semi-autonomous (intelligent) charging scheduling between vehicles, charging station operators and grid operators can be beneficial.
While nearly 10% of all vehicles sold globally in 2021 will be electric vehicles, only 0.3% of heavy vehicles will be sold globally. So far, electric heavy-duty vehicles have only been deployed in large numbers in China with government support. Other countries have announced plans to electrify heavy vehicles, and manufacturers are expanding their product range.
In terms of growth, we expect the number of electric heavy vehicles on the road to increase by 2030. When electric alternatives to diesel heavy duty vehicles reach a breaking point, i.e. when they have a lower total cost of ownership, the option will move towards electricity. By 2026, almost all use cases and work scenarios will gradually reach this inflection point. That is why, according to forecasts, the adoption of electric powertrains in these segments will be exponentially steeper than what we have seen in passenger cars in the past.
The US is a region that has so far lagged behind Europe in the development of electric vehicles. However, current data suggests that U.S. electric vehicle sales have grown rapidly in recent years.
Low inflation bills and high gas prices, not to mention a plethora of new and compelling products such as a full line of vans and pickup trucks, have created new momentum for electric vehicle adoption in America. The already impressive EV market share on the west and east coasts is now shifting inland.
In many areas, electric vehicles are the best choice, not only for environmental reasons, but also for economic and operational reasons. Electric vehicle charging infrastructure is also expanding rapidly in the US, and the challenge is to keep up with growing demand.
Currently, China is in a slight recession, but in the next five years it will turn from a car importer to a car exporter. Domestic demand is expected to recover and show strong growth rates as early as 2023, while Chinese manufacturers will gain increasing market share in Europe, the US, Asia, Oceania and India in the coming years.
By 2027, China could take up to 20% of the market and become the dominant player in innovation and new mobility in the medium to long term. It may become increasingly difficult for traditional European and American OEMs to compete with their competitors: in terms of key components such as batteries and electronics, artificial intelligence and autonomous driving, China is not only far ahead but, most importantly, faster.
Unless traditional OEMs can significantly increase their flexibility to innovate, China will be able to take a big chunk of the pie in the medium to long term.